If you play fantasy football, you have to be cautious of what I call “The Shiny Toy Theory.” Show a baby a shiny toy and they become hypnotized by the sight of it. In fantasy football, there are players that get hot for a week or two and put up impressive numbers. Everyone wants to pick them up because they are pretty and shiny.
Most of these players aren’t built to last. They are teasers, not pleasers. Showers, not growers.
Enter Chris Christie. This week’s Designated Savior of the Republican Party and one of the media’s favorite shiny toy.
The Republican bench of potential candidates for 2016 is long, eager and many are rabid red-meat right-wingers whom refuse to compromise, negotiate or acknowledge political realities. This plays well with the base of the party. It scares the hell out of the general electorate in a presidential election.
Christie is one of those guys who went from obscurity to popularity and never stopped at humility. He should enjoy his time riding high in the news cycle. It won’t last because it never does. Another shinier and prettier toy will come along and the media and the public will trot along behind it like puppies.
In politics destiny is occasionally confused with inevitably. New Jersey has been the nexus of this phenomenon of late when two separate, but important events occurred. Cory Booker went from the ambitious and nationally popular mayor of Newark to the first African-American to win a Senate seat in a state election since another ambitious African-American named Barack Obama did the same in 2006. We all know where his ambitions took him and have no doubt Booker will eventually try to follow Obama’s career arc.
But that’s further in the future. Here and now the other notable event was the Garden State’s incumbent governor, Chris Christie, easily won reelection in a race he was supposed to win in a Democratic state that admires his rough-around-the-edges Republicanism. What made the victory notable to the self-styled seers and wise men sifting the tea leaves for the 2016 presidential race is how the governor cobbled together enough votes from traditionally Democratic supporters for a fawning national media to dub Christie the man to rescue a party that seems to have forgotten how to win national elections.
It’s too early to tell, but he appears to have the makings of such a politician. It isn’t just that his four-year record of incumbency netted him a reelection margin of 60.4 percent compared to just 38.1 percent for his Democratic opponent, although that suggests that he is capable of generating considerable political force. More significant is his performance among particular voter categories. Women gave him a 15 percentage-point advantage over his female rival. People who identified themselves as moderates gave him a 21-point advantage. Independent voters turned to him by a 31-point margin. Even 30 percent of self-described liberals backed him. Meanwhile, he took half of the Hispanic vote and more than 20 percent of the African-American vote.
If Christie could be elected by the slobbering mainstream media, he’d be the next POTUS. Unfortunately for him, he’s gonna have to go stand in some Iowa cornfield in about two years and try to explain to some skeptical farmer chewing tobacco and spitting it out why he should support him over a true believer like Ted Cruz or Rand Paul.
Without a doubt it was a big win for the big man, but Chrstie’s triumph looks even more impressive in comparison to Tea Party poster boy and right-wing radical Ken Cuccinelli’s humbling defeat in Virginia to Terry McAuliffe, a Bill Clinton insider.
Christie’s appeal lies in when compared to the right-wing extremism of Rand Paul and Ted Cruz and the “oh no, not another one” stink all over Jeb Bush, he benefits by being the least terrible choice. For the GOP insiders, while they may grumble over Christie literally embracing President Obama, they can’t deny his popularity and the possibility his gruff, take-no-stuff persona may play well nationally.
What won’t play well is Christie’s imperious and often rude attacks on teachers, labor unions, journalists and other Republicans who cross him. The GOP base won’t care about dissing those first three groups, but if Christie hopes to win the nomination he can’t treat the rest of the Republican field like bleeping idiots even if they are bleeping idiots.
I’m trying to imagine Christie in a debate with Paul, Cruz, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan and whomever shows up all slicing and dicing into him and getting redder and madder as he struggles to hold his volcanic anger in check. I don’t think he can for an entire campaign without at least one major eruption of Mt. Chris Christie.
Americans like tough guys, but they don’t like mean guys and Christie can be very mean. That’s a liability and he’ll have to learn how to temper his noted temper.
Christie is not a secret liberal fantasy. He’s a solidly mainstream Republican who has some moderate positions because he’s a governor in a pretty blue/Democratic state. That will serve Christie well in a general election, but can he even get out of the Republican primaries when everyone from Cruz to Paul to Marco Rubio and the rest are going to be aiming for that target on his double-wide butt?
It’s not a lock Christie even gets the nomination despite the fact many of the traditional Republicans will hold their nose and support him despite not being ideologically “pure.”
Christie would be a moderate but only more moderate in comparison than Cruz, Paul or Rubio (but not that much more). Christie’s lap-band surgery isn’t about slimming down but to take off the table the lingering question of whether Americans wants an obese president, but until the pounds melt away, Christie will still offer plenty of room for his admirers and critics to ride his butt all the way to 2016.
- Mitt Romney Says Chris Christie Can ‘Save Our Party,’ And Disses Ted Cruz (businessinsider.com)
- Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio downplay Chris Christie’s victory (nj.com)
- Chris Christie’s squeeze (dailykos.com)
- President Christie, tea party doom (wenatcheeworld.com)
Stupor Tuesday came and went. It was a beautiful spring-like day in early March and unseasonably warm like this whole winter have been. I thought, “What better way to enjoy the day than to go to the polls, declare myself a Republican and screw up Mitt Romney’s life more than it already is by voting for Rick “Foamy” Santorum.
If I could have I would have. Actually, I could have, but then I wouldn’t have been able to vote for any of the Democratic candidates running for state and local offices. I decided to keep my monkey wrench in my pocket and leave it to the real Republicans to decide between Dumb and Dumber.
Mittens beat out Foamy to win Stupor Tuesday’s biggest prize, but it wasn’t by much and crossover voters didn’t tip the results Foamy’s way. In Ohio, you have to declare your party affiliation before you cast your ballot, so only the Dems who fibbed and played Republican-For-A-Day were able to make Mitt’s night miserable.
I’m not surprised Mittens won. He outspent Foamy 4-to-1 in Ohio, but only could squeak out a 1 point “victory.” Not much to brag about when you consider your opponent lost his Senate seat in 2006 by 18 points. Of course, in the grand scheme of things they don’t ask how much you won by just that you won, but Mittens still ain’t feeling the conservative base love.
As far as this supposed fired-up Republican base chomping at the bit to turn out President Obama it wasn’t in evidence here. My daughter worked the polls as part of her “Youth at the Booth” volunteer program and was at her station from 5:30 am to 8:30 pm to help voters.
Less than 200 bothered to show up. Where’s all that Republican rage to beat Obama I keep hearing about?
What does Mittens’ incredible, overwhelming, devastating “win” in O-H-I-O mean? Some victories are less than meets the eye and this one qualifies.
Before the Michigan primary last week, Romney said he wasn’t willing to light his hair on fire to win the election. But in looking at Tuesday’s exit polls, he must at least be ready to pull his hair out. Fifty-four percent of voters said the economy was the most important issue in determining their vote, and they voted for Romney by 41 percent to Santorum’s 33 percent. Forty-two percent of voters in Ohio said they wanted a candidate who could beat Barack Obama. That was the top quality they sought in a candidate. Romney won in that group 52 percent to 27 percent. Voters also said they preferred a candidate with business experience over government experience by 64 percent to 27 percent.
All of that would suggest a big Romney win, right? Nope. Voters want something else, too. In Ohio, the other half of the electorate cared about who was the true conservative, and Santorum crushed Romney 51 percent to 13 percent on that score. The 21 percent who cared about moral character likewise went for Santorum by 40 points over Romney, 60 percent to 19 percent. Ohio voters also felt like Santorum shares their concerns more than Romney, a big problem for Romney in a key bellwether state. The state has picked the president since 1964. The Republican candidate will have to beat Obama on that important economic question. That Romney can’t convince members of his own party—particularly blue-collar voters he’ll need in the general election—is not a good sign.
Santorum is going to start feeling the pressure from Republicans who say he should hang it up to keep from damaging Romney too much. The math is inevitable, so all he’ll do is weaken Romney in his ultimate contest against Obama. Romney is already suffering from the bruising primary battle. In the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, Romney’s unfavorable rating has grown to 39 percent. His favorable rating is only 28 percent. The longer the battle drags on, the less time Romney will have to raise money and repair the damage done by the primaries.
The Romney campaign never wanted to be seen arguing that Romney was inevitable. Now they’re doing just that. It’s a version of the argument that the Obama campaign made in 2008 when it tried to get Hillary Clinton to turn around her campaign bus. The key difference is that Barack Obama was filling stadiums of rabid supporters at the time. Mitt Romney is not burdened with this problem.
Meanwhile…what about the ever so loveable Dr. No (a.k.a. The Artist Formerly Known As Ron Paul). How did he fare on Stupor Tuesday?
Same as Paul always does. He lost. Repeatedly and everywhere.
Paul was hoping Alaska might give him his first win in the primaries. Alaskans gave him 24 percent of their votes. Good enough for third place behind Mittens and Foamy.
At least Paul’s Alaska showing and the 40 percent he raked off in Virgina where he and Mittens were the only two boobs on the ballot, he can turn to the Newster at the next debate and sneer, “in yo’ face, sucka!” As if they both aren’t as ugly as their personalities. Bragging rights ain’t much, but that’s about all Paul’s got left. He did have some nice lawn signs though. I look for those sort of things and I didn’t spot a single one for Mittens, Foamy or the Newster. Not a one.
Never confuse enthusiasm and volume with actual numbers and genuine commitment. The Paulinistas make a big noise, but they aren’t a big deal.
What exactly was settled by Stupor Tuesday? A few things we already knew. Mittens has the money, the organization, no firm beliefs and he can’t close the sale with the conservative base with the “only one who can beat Barack Obama” pitch.. Foamy has firm beliefs but they’re all crazy ones. Gingrich’s Angry Fat White Man has played out but he still says he’s the one who can go toe-to-toe and beat Obama in a debate, but the presidency isn’t the price award to Best Debater.
Poor old Ron is a bad joke worn thin to everyone except the fanatical few (and getting fewer every day). Paul was only running for president because he wasn’t running for another term in the House, and really, it’s not as if he has anything better to do with his time.
Even the most hardcore political junkie needs to detox every so often. Especially when the Republicans are determined to drive the collective intelligence of the American people down ten to twenty points. When Rick “Foamy” Santorum sneers at President Obama as a “snob” for encouraging attending a college and bettering the chances of snagging a good paying job, we have definitely hit bottom.
As dumb as the Republican presidential candidates have been and all the dumb things they have said, Foamy just totally abuses the limits of how extreme a candidate can be. Santorum denounces the divide between church and state, going so far as to declare when President Kennedy declared his Catholic faith would not influence his decisions, it made him “sick.”
Which couldn’t be better if the Democrats had planned it.. The more Foamy comes out as the American Taliban, the more he marginalizes himself. His appeal to conservatives as the newest Not Romney and the Anti-Obama is a kick-butt strategy in the primaries where the partisans eat it up on a spoon, but would get him nowhere in a general election.
Foamy is a better presidential nominee than Mittens because not only would Obama whip his monkey ass, Foamy would be a drag on the entire Republican Party ticket. There were fears in 2008 that John McCain had more appeal to independent voters due to the respect and admiration he earned as a conservative willing to buck the party line and reach out to his Democratic colleagues in the Senate.
But Santorum was never a leader and he wasn’t respected. He’s always been a right-wing tool and so entrenched as a far-right winger he couldn’t possibly convince independents and moderate voters he’s even close to holding centrist positions. By definition that makes him unelectable. The party establishment knows that which is why they have to destroy Santorum and continue to prop up Romney.
Santorum has bet it all on the idea that the GOP will penalize moderates and reward extremists. As bets go, it’s not an unsound one, but it leaves him no wiggle room in a general election. With Mittens eking out a three-point “win” over Foamy in his home state of Michigan and slaughtering him in Arizona, his rocky road to the Republican nomination is back on track, but Romney is being diminished, not strengthened the longer it takes him to knock off his challengers. He looks weak, unpopular with the base, and he can’t focus on preparing for Obama while he’s fending off first Newt Gingrich and now Santorum on his his right flank.
I’m not worried about Foamy becoming the next President of the United States. I’d like him to continue bloodying Mittens and softening him up. I’d like the current version of the Republican Party to go out of business and be reborn minus the racists, the homophobes and the sexists trying to regulate a woman’s womb.
There are already Obama supporters who can’t stop laughing at the Republicans auditioning for who can be the biggest tool. I have had my share of laughs as well, but I’m not about to declare this race over and done.
There are no sure things this many months out from Election Day. The economic recovery is soft and can go south if unemployment creeps back up or Israel attacks Iran and a new crisis in the Middle East flares up. There is always the possibility of a scandal or another terrorist attack.
The odds of a second term for the president are getting better, but while Team Obama shares the amusement of watching the Republicans ripping into each other, they aren’t permitting themselves the luxury of assuming they don’t have to win the election. When the GOP finally gets their act together they are going to come at Obama with everything they have.
Negative ads and nasty campaigning? We’ve only just begun.
Obama should run scared because what lies ahead is a lot scarier than anything Mittens, Foamy or the Newtster can throw at him.
- Leubsdorf: Will GOP follow its heart or its brains? (goerie.com)
- The Myth of Romney – Tea Party Nation (gds44.wordpress.com)
- Santorum Sinks in Michigan and Romney Flails, Too (unaskedadvice.wordpress.com)
- Mitt Romney’s decisive Michigan win won’t be enough to oust Obama (guardian.co.uk)
By any standard, the candidates running for the Republican presidential nomination are a sad bunch of retreads, weaklings, reactionaries and fatally flawed losers. Mitt Romney is the quintessential rich White man who can barely keep up a brave face when he’s mingling with the unwashed masses, but he’s willing to put on a brave face and hold his nose if that’s what it takes to win.
Newt Gingrich is a narcissist and an egotist whose intellectual racism and repulsive personality makes him hard even for conservatives to take. Then there’s Ron Paul. He’s a special case. He’s not a great thinker like Gingrich or a flip-flopping fake like Romney. No other candidate can claim the kind of enthusiastic support as Paul does. No other candidate seems as genuine and unpretentious as Paul.
There’s also no other candidate as extreme and out of the mainstream as Paul. I’ve made my case against Baby Doc Paul that he is an unworthy of the presidency. The Washington Post ripped away Paul’s ass-covering lies that he wasn’t aware of the racist material in his newsletters.
I don’t expect the Paul die-hards and dead enders to be the least bit disabused of their fantasy that he is a kindly old man who speaks truth to power and advocates a handful of positions that attracts uninformed liberals. Theirs is a separate reality where neither light nor truth penetrates.
The true believers are with Paul all the way until the last bomb falls on the bunker. It’s the rail-sitters and undecided who will have to finally make a call and choose between acknowledging Ron Paul either is a racist personally or just a cynical politician and manipulative businessman willing to exploit racial and homophobic fears to make a dirty buck.
What comes next in tomorrow’s primary in Florida?
Romney crushes Gingrich by double digits. The anti-Romney forces will continue to bitch and moan, but their failure to coalesce behind a single candidate makes them an annoyance, not an insurmountable obstacle. Their choices will come down to holding their nose and pulling the lever for Mitt or watch Obama raising his right hand again next January. Screw the Tea Party! They will get nothing but insincere lip service from Romney and they deserve nothing.
Paul soldiers out looking for friendlier (and cheaper) caucus states and other places where the Ron Paul Race War Revolution might play well. He’ll hang around like a bad odor while he decides whether to launch another rogue run as an independent. Sonny boy Rand might tell dear old dad to sit his ass down in a rocking chair somewhere as not to cock block his inevitable bid in 2016.
Santorum is toast. Put the pennies on the eyes. His moment of glory came and went in Iowa, proving yet again that the best thing that unrepresentative state contributes to presidential contests is exposing weak candidates not ready for the real deal and croaking wannabees who had no business running in the first place. One less repulsive right-winger gone. No great loss.
Which doesn’t mean Rick Santorum isn’t deserving of scorn for his reprehensible remarks about rape victims and abortion. Isn’t it always the way that it’s the most pious and supposedly reverentially religious bastards who have so much love in their hearts for the unborn and nothing but contempt for the living?
On the way home the other day I passed a church where there were 150 little white crosses in the ground and a sign that read, “In the last hour there were 150 children destroyed by abortion.”
That’s pretty heavy-handed, but it takes a prick like Santorum to make it even worse for women facing the difficult choice whether to have an abortion. Piers Morgan interviewed Santorum and asked him if he could deny his daughter an abortion if she were impregnated through an act of rape.
Well, you can make the argument that if she doesn’t have this baby, if she kills her child, that, too, could ruin her life. And this is not an easy choice. I understand that. As horrible as the way that son or daughter and son was created, it still is her child. And whether she has that child or doesn’t, it will always be her child. And she will always know that. And so to embrace her and to love her and to support her and get her through this very difficult time, I’ve always, you know, I believe and I think the right approach is to accept this horribly created — in the sense of rape — but nevertheless a gift in a very broken way, the gift of human life, and accept what God has given to you.
I despise Santorum. He is one of those far Right extremists whom I am incapable of saying a good word about. Beyond his casual racism, there’s his overt hatred of women. I don’t know how you could characterize Santorum’s stupidly sanctimonious remarks as anything but the most repellent kind of misogyny.
Leave it up to a man who will never face an unwanted pregnancy brought out by an act of violence to make an awful situation even worse. Why is the same people who decry government regulation and intrusions into the private life of Americans espouse views where the womb becomes a state-owned asset?
I don’t have an answer, so I turn to the Church of Carlin for one.
Sanctimonious Santorum will be a historical footnote in a matter of weeks or days. Gingrich will soon follow, but after thwarting his threat to Romney in Iowa and again in Florida, the GOP will try to shoot Newt’s zombie campaign of White Rage in the head and put him down once and for all. The powers that be want an electable empty suit to take on President Obama, not a self-centered “big thinker” who wants to colonize the moon.
The Republican establishment wants Mittens vs. Obama and they’re determined to get it.
- Mitt Romney aims for strong Florida performance to fend off Newt Gingrich challenge (100gf.wordpress.com)
- GOP Florida Primary Prediction (carsonjfbruno.wordpress.com)
- Romney, Gingrich trading fire ahead of Florida vote (ctv.ca)
The Mitt Romney Inevitability Express went off the rails in South Carolina as the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party found himself losing a race he thought he had won to a fat, unlikable, career politician with an even stupider nickname than his, Newton Leroy Gingrich, also known and despised as Newt.
What made Mitt’s trip down South really suck was he thought after Iowa the torrent of negative ads he and the unaffiliated Super PACS had launched against the former Speaker of the House had finished him off.. However, the lust of GOP conservatives for someone to articulate their hatred of President Obama burns strong as does their desire for an alternative to the rich Mormon who stashes his cash in the Cayman Island. Losing to Newt 40 percent to 27 percent should send a clear message to the Massachusetts millionaire: the rank and file just aren’t into you–still.
I missed the Republican debate the other night where Gingrich went right-the-freak-off on CNN’s John King for having the elephant balls to ask him about ex-wife, Marianne Gingrich’s accusation that the Newster wanted an open marriage so he could continue banging his booty call and eventual third wife, Callista.
Life is too short to waste it on bad movies, bad music, and bad politicians bumping their gums talkin’ loud and sayin’ nothin’. I know there was a debate the other night. I had far more important things to do than watch that crap. Like peeling a potato or clipping my toenails or picking lint out of my belly button.
South Carolina doesn’t totally change the Republican race as much as it makes it possible it might go on longer than the experts had though. Romney believed he had things locked up once Chris Christie decided to stay home eating donuts. Christie was the only candidate who could have pulled together the diverse wings of the GOP in a united front against President Obama. His decision to sit out 2012 prompted most of the big money and establishment decided to fall in line behind Romney leaving the hard core Right with nowhere to go and no one to slow Mitt’s roll to the nomination.
But a funny thing happened on the road to Inevitability. Here we are three contests in and the front-runner’s only victory came in a state he was supposed to win. The scorecard so far reads Rick Santorum winning Iowa, Mittens taking New Hampshire and the Newster rising from the ashes to kick Mitt’s ass in South Carolina. Now it’s on to Florida where the results could boost the winner of that state to a the inside track to the nomination or scramble the race so badly, Mitt and Newt might slug it out all the way through January into the spring.
South Carolina did us the great favor of ending the campaigns of Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman. So why is Ron Paul hanging on for? Paul’s support is loud but not broad. He came in third in Iowa, settled for second in New Hampshire, was dead on arrival and if he steps foot in Florida the only reason will be to work on his tan and get a fresh-squeezed glass of orange juice. Florida is heavily made up of elderly Jewish voters and though Paul is 76-years old, his anti-Israel, anti-Social Security rhetoric won’t play there.
In a normal year, a sleazy douchebag like Newt Gingrich would be bumping around in the lower strata with the rest of the also-rans, but this is not a normal year. If his record of unethical behavior weren’t enough to sink him like a stone, Newt’s loose zipper would be enough to disqualify him from serious consideration as a serious contender. Newt is such a man-whore that if he were elected president he would be our commander-in-briefs (tip of the hat to Sandra Booker for that one) whose roving eye means at any moment he might up and leave America for a younger and fresher country (and thank you Rena Marrocco for that).
Regardless of South Carolina, Newt is still big pimpin’ with small bills. He doesn’t have Romney’s resources to wage a long, protracted and expensive war of attrition. It may take Romney longer than he planned and cost him more money before he finally crushes the Newt under his heel, but the bet here is when the final drop of blood is spilled in the GOP Civil War, Mittens will be the victor.
But Mitt will have to try to get to the right of Newt to knock him out and the further he drifts away from his moderate reputation, the harder it will be for him to get back and disavow all the positions he’s taken that will be showing up in Obama 2012 attack ads.
Football is my favorite sport, but watching Republicans claw, fang and devour each other is my favorite bloodsport. It’s been simply splendid entertainment.
- Listen, People. Newt Gingrich is Not Going to Win. Let’s Move On. (thinlinestupid.wordpress.com)
- South Carolina Republican debate: Newt Gingrich goes nuclear on media (kaystreet.wordpress.com)
- Holy Herman Cain Batman! – Gingrich ex-wife: Newt wanted an open marriage (reclaimamericafromthelunaticfringe.wordpress.com)
- What does Gingrich win in South Carolina mean for Florida? (tampabay.com)
There’s one less bozo in the Republican Clown Car.
Happy Trails, Governor Goodhair. The Rick Perry Party is over.
“I believe Newt is a conservative visionary who can transform this country,” Perry said.
Making what he called a “strategic retreat,” the Texan obliquely referred to Gingrich’s checkered personal life just hours before an interview with the former House speaker’s second wife was to speak out in a TV interview.
“Newt is not perfect, but who among us is?” said Perry.
Citing his Christian faith, Perry said of Gingrich: “I believe in the power of redemption.
“I will leave the trail, return home to Texas, and wind down my 2012 campaign. And I will do so with pride.”
Pride? You mean the closeted and self-hating kind of gay pride, Rick? Not sayin’, just sayin’.
Perry entered the presidential race with every advantage, money, experience, great hair and no idea how to run for president, so he ran one of the worst campaigns I’ve ever seen. Inept in live debate, reactionary in his positions and painfully inarticulate in public, Perry is a heavyweight in Texas, but outside of it, he repeatedly proved he simply was not ready for prime time. After stumbling and bumbling his way through debate after debate, Perry’s poll numbers fell off a cliff as he was elbowed aside by other equally reactionary Anti-Romney candidates.
Perry tried to be the most reactionary Republican in a campaign full of them. His only success came when he entered the race he effectively burst Michelle Bachmann’s bubble, but his fellow Texan, Ron Paul had already staked out the White supremacist/extremist constituency, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum were far more skilled at race-baiting leaving Perry with no room on the Right to move to.
Game, set, match. Perry did nothing in Iowa, disappeared in New Hampshire and two days before voters in South Carolina could humiliate him further, Perry quit. Perry had become so irrelevant to Mitt Romney’s eventuality that when he announced he was hanging up his spurs, it wasn’t even the top story of the day. The news media was focusing on one of Newt Gingrich’s ex-wives going on ABC to out the former Speaker of the House as a freak who wanted an “open marriage.’
The speculation is Perry will try again in 2016. The same thing is said about every unsuccessful candidate whether their name is Bachmann, Cain, Pawlenty, or Huntsman. These are not temporary setbacks that can be resolved by licking their wounds and retreating from the national stage. These are failures and losers.
Out of all the contenders, none of them fell off as fast and landed as hard as little Ricky Perry. The far-right, religious freak and potential closet case that couldn’t.
- Rick Perry quits Republican presidential race as ABC prepares ‘bombshell’ Marianne Gingrich interview (100gf.wordpress.com)
- Perry Out Endorses Gingrich, Santorum Iowa Upset (thepracticalvegetarian.wordpress.com)
- Perry Makes a ‘Strategic Retreat’ and Endorses Gingrich (actualgrit.wordpress.com)
- Santorum Certified IA Winner, Gingrich Takes Lead In SC, Perry Drops Out (virginiavirtucon.wordpress.com)
I’d really like to get past all the opening acts and proceed directly to the Obama versus Mitt brawl for it all, but we can’t fast forward it past the preliminaries to the main event quite yet, so instead of being first I’ll get the last word in on the Iowa caucus. Mitt Romney “won” by a whopping eight votes while Rick Santorum could claim the title as the newest Not Mitt Romney with his surge into second place.
Romney came into Iowa late while Santorum practically moved in having traveled to every country in the state. Romney’s victory almost qualifies as a tie and a tie with Santorum counts as a loss for Romney.
On to New Hampshire. Winning there won’t prove anything as that’s Romney’s firewall state and he’s expected to clobber all comers. If Santorum is smart (and if he was he wouldn’t be Rick Santorum), he should forget New Hampshire, let Mitt have his cheap win there and go straight to South Carolina where his culture warrior extremism may play well.
The life of an Anti-Romney is a short one and it’s obviously Slick Rick II’s time to shine. Does he have staying power? Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich and Paul didn’t. Maybe he’ll be the one that does. Or at least until Romney’s super PACS get medieval on his ass.
Mitt will never going to be the guy the true believers love. They don’t believe he really believes what he’s saying and that as soon as he secures the nomination, he’s going to run so far and fast to the middle he will trample underfoot any Tea Partier that gets in his way.
Knowing this is his dilemma, Mitt won’t even waste time trying to win the love of the committed conservatives. He’ll just open up his wallet and crush Rick Santorum like a rotten orange.
Pop quiz, hotshot. What fourth-place finisher in Iowa said this about a month ago?
I’m going to be the nominee. It’s very hard not to look at the recent polls and think that the odds are very high I’m going to be the nominee.
Yep. That was Newt Gingrich swaggering and going all gangsta. Right up until Mittens and money opened up a big ol’ can of whup-ass negative ads and killed Newt’s momentum deader than Osama bin Laden.
Newt didn’t have the cash, the organization or the ability to punch back until it was all over. Santorum has the same trouble and will suffer the same fate.
Mitt isn’t going to pick anyone he doesn’t want and what does he get by picking Bachmann or Perry? Nothing. The Republicans already know they’re going to win Texas and probably Minnesota, so why pick a vice-president who (a) isn’t ready for the job and (b) brings nothing of use to the ticket?
Mitt knows he needs a battleground state. Somewhere like Florida (Marco Rubio, Rick Scott) or Virginia (Bob McDonnell) that takes it out of play for Obama and forces him to look elsewhere on the map for those much-needed electoral votes.
Second, I used to think as well, “Well, Mitt needs to appeal to the Tea Party.” And maybe he does, but not to the extent that appealing to them costs him the independent and disaffected Democratic vote. Mitt is the last Republican standing who can tack to the center in the general election. Santorum can’t and won’t. Paul could, but won’t. There’s nobody else left.
There’s not going to be a brokered convention. There isn’t going to be an 11th hour “real” conservative riding to the rescue. There’s just going to be Mitt and Barack and that’s all the choice you’re going to have besides flushing away your vote on a third-party loser.
Romney’s closing sales pitch is simple. Get all those Tea Partiers and evangelicals and other right-wingers in a room and make it so simple for them even they can’t get it confused.
You don’t like me and I don’t like you. That’s the way it is. but here’s something you may not realize. You don’t HAVE to like me. All you have to do is like the idea of a second term for Obama less.
Bottom line: Ruth Bader Ginsburg is old and she’s been sick. She might want to stay on the Supreme Court forever, but I’m gonna bet she doesn’t make it.
Eventually, she’s going to retire. Scalia might retire. Thomas too. Now who do you want choosing their replacement? Me or Obama?
He will appoint judges that will uphold Roe v. Wade. I won’t.
- Newt Gingrich Praises Rick Santorum; Mitt Romney Not So Much (thehollywoodgossip.com)
- Santorum enjoys New Hampshire poll bump but trails far behind Romney (guardian.co.uk)
- Santorum Closing on Mitt in SC (newser.com)
Tonight’s the night we get past the preliminaries and the 2012 presidential election really gets started. All across the state of Iowa, the predominantly White, conservative evangelical populace will dutifully drag themselves into auditoriums, classrooms, living rooms and anywhere else they can congregate to caucus and make the case for their favorite Republican.
If the polls mean anything, Mitt Romney will come out on top by edging out Ron Paul and the recently returned to political relevance, Rick Santorum. Newt Gingrich had his fling with Iowa, but he’s admitted he won win and with Romney likely to take New Hampshire as well, Gingrich along with Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann will take their show on the road to South Carolina and Florida in search of somewhere to plant their flag and slow Romney’s roll to the nomination.
No, I didn’t forget Jon Huntsman, but everyone else has. If he doesn’t show well in New Hampshire it’s hard to envision where he could win. Ditto for Perry, Bachmann, Gingrich and Santorum. They don’t have Mitt’s organization, endorsements or deep pockets.
That leaves Paul who says he has no intentions of running as an independent, but hasn’t said he won’t either. If he does, Paul would draw some votes from President Obama, but would be more of a help to him than Romney. If Fox News and the conservative establishment keep saying mean things about him and Mitt doesn’t incorporate any of Paul’s messages into his campaign, I predict Paul will run a guerilla campaign against Obama and Romney, but he’s more likely to hurt the GOP nominee.
One last thing about Paul. When I wrote two consecutive posts about his racist newsletters and refusal to sufficiently distance himself from them, I knew the Paulinistas would be pissed. I had hoped they might offer some sort of intelligent defense of their boy. That hasn’t happened.
if thats all you can come up with to complain about ron paul then you should find new material to waste your time on, if you think he’s such a bad guy what do you think about these real fuck holes that manipulate your views and form your opinions for you, if you knew anything you would know ron paul isn’t a racist and you are more the racist for portraying that kind of material on your blog, be a little more realistic when reporting on real people.
It wasn’t his newsletter, it was a newsletter that he leant his name to. He was not involved in the production of the newsletter. Since the incident he has stopped lending his name out in such a manner. Ron Paul is a prolific writer who tends to reiterate his beliefs over and over again in his writings. He had never written anything like the newsletter before the newsletter, nor has he since. Therefore, there is no reason to not believe him. He didn’t write it. Period. Let it go.
Ron Paul supported desegregation of government institutions but was against imposing the same laws on private businesses because doing so would increase government power. And because both parts are in the civil rights act, he would have voted against it. This does not make him a racist. It makes him an idealist who sticks to his priciples and applies them accross the board no matter how unpopular. And no he does not want to repeal the Civil Rights Act, as that would be a collosal wast of time. The first thing he would do is end the Bush/Obama wars.
Why not list some of the recent civil rights legislation that Paul voted no on. I can garuntee that he did so because they increased government power.
Yes Paul voted against giving a congressional metal of honor to Rosa Parks. He votes against ALL congressional metals of honor including one for Mother Teresa. Why? Because he does not believe that congress has the authority spend the People’s money without the consent of the People. He did however offer to put up $100 of his own money for Rosa Park’s metal, and asked the other members of congress to do so also. They all declined.
Oh, and I’m Black and I support Ron Paul.
You have my sympathies, but being Black and a Ron Paul supporter is your problem. You have the right to be wrong.
Ron Paul is not a racist. He’s just opposed to the 1964 Civil Rights Act, published, but never read the racist essays run in his own newsletters, and is “clueless” to Black and Latino culture and particularly of Mexican-Americans and “intolerant” of anyone speaking Spanish in his presence.
Adios, puta madre.
Ron Paul is not anti-Semitic. He just yelled at a group of Republican Jews until they walked out and thinks saving the Jews from Hitler’s Final Solution in WWII was a bad idea.
Ron Paul is not homophobic. He just doesn’t want to shake a gay man’s hand or use the same toilet a gay man uses and prefers to hold it until he can find a nice, clean public toilet in a restaurant where he can take a dump.
Ron Paul was a doctor. He obviously is fearful of getting gay cooties.
It’s a terrible thing to believe in someone who isn’t everything they present themselves are, but I don’t care if I haven’t convinced the Paulinistas their messiah is a bigot. I’m convinced. You’re on your own.
Maybe you’re not mistaken. Maybe Ron Paul is your hope for a president you can believe in.
But if you’re not Black, possibly not gay, probably not in need of an abortion or of the Jewish faith, by all means, cast your fate to a bigoted wind.
Whatever happens in Iowa tonight will not produce the key moment in the 2012 race that totally altered it. When Obama beat Hillary Clinton in 2008, it was a huge upset, but Clinton blunted Obama’s bounce by winning New Hampshire a week later. Romney is the prohibitive front-runner and until someone emerges as the Anti-Romney, he’s still the most likely Republican to take on Obama.
Before we get to the main event we still have to suffer through the qualifying preliminaries.
- Ron Paul Criticizes ’64 Civil Rights Act, Does Not Know Why It’s Vital (pinkbananaworld.com)
- The Danger of Ron Paul (newser.com)
- POLL: Rick Santorum Is Closing In On Ron Paul AND Mitt Romney (businessinsider.com)