“Batman v Superman” Is Too Big To Fail. Right?

When Bros Clash! by Frank Miller

This is not a review of Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice.   It doesn’t need reviews this is probably going to a movie that is critic-proof. The ability to have bullets bounce off is gonna come in handy because the movies is under fire pulling an anemic 33 percent on Rotten Tomatoes.

I haven’t seen the movie and wasn’t planning on in its opening week, but if I were a suit at Warner Brothers, I’d be scared down to my skivvies. Not scared of Lex Luthor, but of the Hulk, the 2003 film version.

Hulk was released on June 20, 2003, earning $62.1 million in its opening weekend, which made it the 16th highest ever opener at the time. However, poor word of mouth spread, and it never recovered. With a second weekend drop of 70%, it was the first opener above $20 million to drop over 65%. The film went on to gross $132.2 in North America, and $113.2 in foreign countries, coming to a worldwide total of $245.4 million. Hulk failed to recoup its $137 million budget since it did not make more than $274 million.   With a final North American gross of $132.2 million it became the largest opener to fail to earn $150 million.

So there’s precedent.  There’s no doubt Bats vs. Supes will have a great opening week. The buzz is big for this one:

One interesting stat released by Fandango when trumpeting the massive pre-sale figures for Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice was this little tidbit: 88% of moviegoers are excited to see Wonder Woman onscreen. Of those polled among pre-ticket buyers, that number is higher than any other polled question.

82% have seen Man of Steel in theaters, 66% are Zack Snyder fans, 61% are planning to see the movie more than once, 60% are looking forward to Jesse Eisenberg as Lex Luthor, 59% are rooting for Batman, and 41% are rooting for Superman.

Those are reasons to be optimistic Batman v. Superman will have a yuuuuuge opening week.

But what happens in the second week? If it takes a Hulk-sized fall-off of 60-70 percent, it’s dead. Even many of the positive reviews have said this is not a “kid friendly” flick for reasons I can’t mention.  If families won’t go, will fans be enough to make up the difference?

This movie cost $250 to make and another $150 million to market. That’s a $400 million dollar gamble and if doesn’t make BIG money–Avengers, Star Wars billion dollar kind of money. Anything less than that will not bode well for the future of the DC film franchises.    My guess is  this will open to over $100 million, but nobody can predict if it will get a repeat audience or they just go see Deadpool again.

Batman v. Superman has dropped to 30 percent on Rotten Tomatoes.    It is four percent ahead of My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, so that’s something to get Zack Snyder fist-pumping.

Before anyone says I must be a Marvel zombie, I hate Ben Affleck’s dimpled chin and I own Disney stock so I’m hoping Bats v. Supes tank , let me stop you there.   It matters that Batman v. Superman is good for the same reason it mattered when DC and Marvel were known for comic books and not for comic book movies.   Competition made them both try harder and if DC’s movies suck, Marvel movies will inevitably suck too.

I pay attention to movie critics because I was one and the word is this is not a great film.  I’ll decide that for myself, but I wasn’t planning on going on Opening Week anyway.   I’m busy staying home and catching up with Daredevil Season Two.

You remember Daredevil, right?   The last superhero Batffleck played?